I dropped my iPhone on concrete and shattered the screen a few weeks back. I really am trying to hold out for the new hardware.

Okay, TUAW offered up a pattern, which I’ve copied below, but I think it needs revision, which I’ve added in italics. I didn’t agree with their predictions for 2010. The last two years Apple has tied the introduction of the new phone to the WWDC keynote—certainly they could put on their own media event to do it earlier, but will they? Looking at the patterns below, I think Apple is behind schedule, probably because they added a new product in the iPad. I won’t be surprised if it’s July before I can get a new phone, and late June before it’s announced at WWDC.

Original iPhone announced: January 2007
WWDC Keynote: June 11, 2007 (no big iPhone announcements, just “develop web apps”)
Original iPhone released: June 29, 2007
Original iPod touch: September 13, 2007

iPhone OS 2.0 announced and demoed: March 6, 2008
iPhone 3G and OS 2.0 release date announced: June 9, 2008
WWDC: June 9-13, 2008—above announcement at keynote
3G iPhone on sale & OS 2.0 released: July 11, 2008 (disastrous)
iPod touch update: September 9, 2008

iPhone OS 3.0 announced and demoed: March 17, 2009
WWDC: June 8-12, 2009—3GS announced at keynote
iPhone 3GS and OS 3.0 release date announced: June 9, 2009
iPhone 3.0 released June 17, 2009
iPhone 3GS on sale June 19, 2009
iPod touch update: September 9, 2009

iPhone OS 4.0 announced and demoed: April 8, 2010
iPhone update, OS 4.0 release date announced: June 2010 [??]
rumored WWDC: June 28–July 2, 2010
“summer”: 4.0 to be released for phones
iPod touch update: September 2010
“fall”: 4.0 to be released for the iPad

While I’m playing pundit—reviews of the iPad make it seem a bit unfinished, software-wise. I wouldn’t be surprised if it skips right to 4.1 in the fall, and that’s when it will really come into its own.